Indeed.

Formulas without taking into all variables are worse than no formula!

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Our pack's Royal Family Message every round now:

"Please don't hit active guys with huge OP--even if they leave land DP!!!"

Isn't that the very definition of a model/theory? You leave out some small variables - which you know affect the outcome - that you regard as so small that it helps making your model/theory easier to manipulate/use?

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In his last Budget as chancellor in 2007, Gordon Brown said: “We will never return to the old boom and bust.”

Kalle,

Actually, you bring up an interesting point; and it's a timely one for me, because a few days ago I had a debate over dinner this very particular topic with a few college friends over dinner.

The main topic of that debate had to do with the validity of Samuel Huntington's (in-)famous "Clash of Civilization" thesis--which I am sure you know about. One friend objected to Huntington on the basis that the concept of "civilization" or "culture" does not explain many major developments in the world as a "meta-theory." For instance, he said, Saudi Arabia seems closer in some sense to the U.S. than its more radical Arab neighbors, in spite of their civilizational affinity.

In response, I referred to Huntington's own defense of his thesis against similar criticisms: A theory or model does not need to explain everything but only explain more--and better--than its alternatives in a parsimonious manner. This appears to me your position, and I obviously do not disagree, as I tend to rather liberally use theories and generalization.

But the problem here with Immor's model/theory is twofold. First, he seems to be outright factually wrong about the most important or primary data as he presents as his "evidence." Second, the "variables" he left out were not "small" or "minor" but "major". So Perhaps I should have originally said:

"Formulas without taking into all major variables are worse than no formula!"

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Our pack's Royal Family Message every round now:

"Please don't hit active guys with huge OP--even if they leave land DP!!!"

This reminds me of an almost forgotten memory. Numquam ponenda est pluralitas sine necessitate. (Plurality must never be posited without necessity). Ockham razor, we called it, when we followed lessons about Sir Karl Popper. "to explain less, is far better, then to explain it all".

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We can forgive a man for making a useful thing as long as he does not admire it. The only excuse for making a useless thing is that one admires it intensely. (Oscar Wilde)

+1 for the Latin. -2 for the reference to Popper

_________________
Our pack's Royal Family Message every round now:

"Please don't hit active guys with huge OP--even if they leave land DP!!!"